In 2021, we may see the beginning of one of the biggest advances of the century. Cattle, buffalo, sheep and goats all produce greenhouse gases; nitrous oxide, carbon dioxide and methane. The manure from cattle, the fertilisers for crops for cattle feed, and the trees functioning as carbon sinks that are lost, are additional reasons why beef has such a large carbon footprint. One beef burger amounts to 16kg of greenhouse gases, 3000 litres of water, and 4 squared metres land area. But what if the meat industry had a 78-98% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, an 82-96% reduction in water use and a 99% reduction in land use?
One study has predicted that a conversion from conventional meat to cultured meat would lead to these changes (graph below). Cultured beef involves taking muscle cells from a cow and feeding and nurturing them until they create muscle tissue. Therefore, cultured meat is identical to conventional meat. However, these estimates are currently thought experiments, as the environmental impact of mass production is difficult to predict. All studies suggest a reduction in land use and water pollution with cultured meat, but a recent study has suggested that the increase in carbon dioxide released as opposed to methane, may lead to long term warming, as CO2 accumulates in the atmosphere. Depending on the production methods of conventional cattle, cultured meat is predicted to result in a similar long-term warming effect. The energy required may vary and will be dependent on the efficiency of wide-scale production methods.
The price of lab-based meat has dropped dramatically since its conception in 2013 and many start-ups have been improving production methods. Mosa Foods, for example, plans to have a beef patty down to $12, and Memphis Meats aims to begin supermarket sales of beef, chicken and duck by 2021. Still, even if an identical environmentally friendly burger was available, would anyone buy it? If prices were equal, one model predicted that only 11% of people would buy it, while 65% of consumers would purchase beef. Educated people were more likely to prefer cultured meat, so highlighting any environmental benefits to the public is essential. Until cultured meat becomes commercially available, many plant-based burgers currently exist such as Beyond Burger and Impossible burger. But, what do you think - could cultured meat lead to a sustainable future?